Yesterday’s weather happened; we already know the outcome with exacting certainty. Same is true for climate change. The climate changed. Using no more than elementary math, I calculate there is a 1 in 2.5 x 1017 probability that the globe is seeing natural variation of the weather vs. underlying climate change. That’s 10 million times the probability of winning the PowerBall or MegaMilliions lottery. We don’t plan our family budgets around a one in 10 million chance we are going to win the lottery, and we should not make public policy against these odds either.
I was comforted that I am not alone in my conclusion. In an August 2023 paper, Zachariah, et.al. found that the extreme heat in North American in July 2023 was caused by climate change vs. natural variability with an infinite probability[1]; or there is a zero probability we are observing natural variation here in the US West in 2023. They used more advanced statistical procedures.
However, climate change is no longer a discussion about the a priori science, data adequacy, models, Al Gore, etc.
During this decades long discussion about climate change, the climate didn’t wait for us humans to realize the effect was real: climate changed all on its own - notwithstanding that lack of universal acceptance of this phenomenon by mankind.
The observations of the temperature and other data points over the past 175 years, and particularly the last 10 years are quite conclusive. The claim that CO2 levels will cause the earth to warm is supported by the observed data, and the alternative thesis that we are seeing natural variation is rejected.
See my paper on this subject at https://www.cchinckley.com/chuckhinckleyblog, and on YouTube at https://youtu.be/3_jVr6Iv2aI.
[1] Zachariah, M; Philip, S; Pinto, I; Vahlberg, M; Singh, R; Arrighi, J; R; Barnes, C; Otto, FEL (2023). Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/105549